U.S. Home Prices Predicted to Rise 4.7 Percent in Coming 12 Months

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CoreLogic's July 2015 Home Price Index (HPI) is reporting that U.S. home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.9 percent in July 2015 compared with July 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 1.7 percent in July 2015 compared with June 2015.

Including distressed sales, only Colorado has more than 10 percent year-over-year growth. Additionally, only 10 states have experienced increased growth in the last year that matched or surpassed the nation as a whole; those states are: Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, New York, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Washington. Fifteen states reached new price peaks since January 1976 when the index began including Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas. Only two states experienced home price depreciation: Massachusetts (-2.1 percent) and Mississippi (-0.8 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.7 percent in July 2015 compared with July 2014 and increased by 1.5 percent month over month compared with June 2015. Excluding distressed sales, only West Virginia (-0.3 percent) and Vermont (-0.1 percent) showed year-over-year home price depreciation in July. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate-owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 0.5 percent month over month from July 2015 to August 2015 and by 4.7 percent** on a year-over-year basis from July 2015 to July 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are projected to increase by 0.4 percent month over month from July 2015 to August 2015 and by 4.6 percent** year over year from July 2015 to July 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

"Home sales continued their brisk rebound in July and home prices reflected that, up 6.9 percent from a year ago," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic based in Irvine, Ca. "Over the same period, the National Association of Realtors reported existing sales up 10 percent and the Census Bureau reported new home sales up 26 percent in July."

"Low mortgage rates and stronger consumer confidence are supporting a resurgence in home sales of late," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Adding to overall housing demand is the benefit of a better labor market which has provided millennials the financial independence to form new households and escape ever rising rental costs."

Highlights as of July 2015:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Colorado (+10.4 percent), Washington (+9.9 percent), Nevada (+9.1 percent), Hawaii (+8.9 percent) and Oregon (+8.8 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Colorado (+10.1 percent), Washington (+9.5 percent), Nevada (+9.1 percent), Oregon (+9.1 percent) and New York (+9 percent).

• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to July 2015) was -6.6 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -3.5 percent.

• Including distressed transactions, the five states with the largest peak-to-current declines were: Nevada (-30.6 percent), Florida (-28.1 percent), Arizona (-25.1 percent), Rhode Island (-24.2 percent) and Maryland (-20.2 percent).

• Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 95 showed year-over-year increases. The five CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (-0.3 percent); Boston, MA (-3.8 percent); New Haven-Milford, CT (-1.9 percent); New Orleans-Metairie, LA (-4.9 percent) and Worcester, MA-CT (-7.2 percent).