Can They Get the Numbers Right?

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(ABU DHABI, UAE) -- Two weeks ago English language newspapers in the UAE ran extra big headlines announcing that the country's population had "leaped" to 8.19 million. This was surprising to many of us who live here because the last census was conducted in 2005. When results were revealed in 2006, the population was said to be 5.6 million of whom 20 percent were Emirati nationals and 80 percent expatriates.

Since the 2005 census, the country has grown but also contracted. Dubai and perhaps even Abu Dhabi have lost population. That is seen on the roads. Driving around Dubai at or near morning and evening rush hours used to be hard. Traffic jams happened daily. Since the economic crisis of late 2008, the roads are less crowded, and so are the malls. The 2005 numbers may have been too low. The ones released recently are almost certainly too high.

Since a census hasn't been conducted in five years, where do population numbers come from? They were supplied by the National Bureau of Statistics in The Report on Economic & Social Dimension 2009 that was made public on May 29. The figures come from what the report calls "administrative records" provided by the Ministry of the Interior (MI) and the Emirates Identity Authority.

The Ministry collects data on expatriate professionals coming to work in the UAE and approves residence visas. People hired in groups as manual workers and maids - the majority of expatriates - apparently do not have to be approved the same way. Thus, the figures provided by MI do not account for all expatriates.

Since 2008 the UAE has been trying to have everyone living in the country register for an Emirates Identity card. However, the deadline that makes possession of the card mandatory keeps slipping. It was the end of 2008, then 2009, and now perhaps the end of 2010, which could slip as well. If every expatriate resident and every Emirati has a card, the numbers will add up to total population. But everyone doesn't have a card, and the procedures to get one were cumbersome, so many people never bothered.

It's hard to believe the 8.19 million population figure because the last official guess at population suggested that this year it would reach 7.5 million. The National Human Resources Development and Employment Authority also said the population of the UAE was doubling every 8.7 years. That too is only an educated guess.

Whatever the true population figure, the UAE is a small country punching way above its weight in the global marketplace due to its energy riches, of course, but also to a zest for enormous infrastructure projects and iconic developments in the main cities, the capital Abu Dhabi and the better known business and tourism center, Dubai. However, the projects and developments come with strings.

 A new report from Moody's Investors Service finds "a wall of maturing debt" in the GCC countries, most of it from Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The debt for the region is $145 billion. In the next 18-30 months, payments of $28 billion will be due. Since the UAE carries 64 percent of total debt, Abu Dhabi and Dubai will have to pay around $18 billion in the coming months.

That requires the UAE to ramp up economic production and attract significant foreign investment which is where the uncertainty about population figures becomes important.  It's difficult to invest in an unclear situation. Population numbers are related to size of market for consumer goods and many B2B products and services as well. More important, the lack of reliable generally accepted data plagues the economy in the UAE.

In its report Moody suggests that because of the huge debt in the GCC and especially the UAE, getting credit will be difficult. To restore confidence in the economy, transparency, a reliable regulatory framework, and more access to financial markets are needed. Numbers that don't seem to make sense do not encourage economic growth and foreign investment.

In April the Emirate of Abu Dhabi announced it would conduct a population survey. One day in May, my doorbell rang around 6 pm. It was an Emirati woman with a clipboard. She didn't speak much English, and I can't speak Arabic, so we barely managed. All she asked was how many people live in the apartment? Only me, I said. No husband? No. Children? No. Nationality? American. She didn't ask my age, how much money I earn, where I work or anything else that census takers ask.

According to a report in The National daily newspaper, 1000 people have been hired to conduct the survey for the Statistics Center-Abu Dhabi. The results can be helpful for Abu Dhabi, but they would be more helpful if the survey were a true census. Five years after the last census, it is time for the UAE government to know how many people live in the country and to have statistical evidence about them.

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