Latin America Hotel Construction Pipeline Continues to Decline

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(ORLANDO, FL) -- According to a Lodging Economics report released today, as of the end of Q3 2009 the Latin America Construction Pipeline has a total of 482 projects and 83,291 guest rooms. After 6 consecutive quarters of declines, the Pipeline is at the lowest level yet for the current cycle and is expected to trend even lower. Developer sentiment continues to be weighed down by the lackluster global economy, causing a fall off in leisure travel.

Guest room demand is affected. There are big declines in room rates as well. Difficulty sourcing financing for new projects is also a problem. Consequently, New Project Announcements into the Pipeline are at a cyclical low and will likely continue in a low channel for some time to come. Conversely, cancellations and postponements are at a cyclical high at 74 projects, 25 of which were already Under Construction. Meanwhile, New Hotel Openings are forecasted to be at near peak levels for the next two years. All this points to a more deeply diminished Pipeline in 2012 and beyond.



Lodging Economics notes:

• For Latin America as a whole, total Pipeline projects are down 10% QoQ and 29% from the peak in Q1 2008.

• 52% of all Latin America Pipeline projects and 54% of total rooms are already Under Construction.

• Out of all world regions, South America has the largest share, 63% of all projects, of its Pipeline Under Construction.

• 50% of all Pipeline projects in the region are in South America. 140 projects/24,378 rooms, or 58% of projects, are in Brazil. With its recent selection as host country for the 2016 Olympics, Brazil may see uninterrupted lodging development growth well into the middle of the next decade.

• Mexico has the second largest Pipeline in Latin America, with 111 projects/17,483 rooms, followed distantly by Argentina, with 39 projects/5,173 rooms, and Panama, with 19 projects/4,600 rooms.

• InterContinental, Hilton, Marriott, and Wyndham have strong Pipeline counts with their high-end brands in the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America, particularly in the resort destinations and large urban areas. In South America, where the emphasis is more on upscale and midmarket brands, InterContinental, Wyndham and ACCOR are leading development there.

New Hotel Openings peaked in Latin America in 2008, with 144 new hotels/24,237 guest rooms. New Openings are set to tail off temporarily in 2009, with 131 projects/ 18,620 rooms expected to enter as new supply. Room counts will then rebound, as the high number of New Project Announcements from 2008 and early 2009 come through the Pipeline as New Openings. LE's Forecast for New Hotel Openings calls for 133 projects/20,617 rooms to open in 2010, then 119 projects/21,986 rooms in 2011. The pace of New Hotel Openings will then dramatically taper off in 2012, reflecting falling Pipeline project counts.

 

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