U.S. Home Prices to Rise in 6.3 Percent in Coming Year, Says CoreLogic

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According to CoreLogic's latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 10.5 percent in April 2014 compared to April 2013. This change represents 26 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 2.1 percent in April 2014 compared to March 2014.

At the state level, including distressed sales, no states posted depreciation in April 2014. Additionally, Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming all surpassed their previous home price peaks. In all, 23 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 8.3 percent in April 2014 compared to April 2013 and 1.1 percent month over month compared to March 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 6.3 percent (+/- 1.5 percent) from April 2014 to April 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.8 percent month over month from 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 5.5 percent (+/- 1.5 percent) from April 2014 to April 2015.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

"The weakness in home sales that began a few months ago is clearly signaling a slowdown in price appreciation," said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. "The 10.5 percent increase in April, compared to a year earlier, was the slowest rate of appreciation in 14 months."

"Home prices are continuing to rise as we head into the summer months," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "The purchase market continues to suffer from a dearth of inventory which we expect will continue to drive prices up over the year."

Highlights as of April 2014:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: California (+15.6 percent), Nevada (+14.8 percent), Hawaii (+14.1 percent), Oregon (+11.8 percent) and Michigan (+11.3 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Hawaii (+13.0 percent), California (+11.4 percent), Nevada (+11.1 percent), New York (+10.3 percent) and Florida (+10.2 percent).

• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to April 2014) was -14.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -10.8 percent.

• Excluding distressed sales, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in April.

• Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 26 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, this is the smallest year-over-year increase since February 2013.

• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-38.6 percent), Florida (-34.5 percent), Arizona (-29.5 percent), Rhode Island (-28.8 percent) and West Virginia (-24.2 percent).

• Ninety-five of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in April 2014. The five CBSAs that did not show an increase were: Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; New Haven-Milford, Conn.