Residential Real Estate News
Global Home Price Growth Accelerates in 2024
Based on new data from Knight Frank, global housing markets continued to see stronger growth in the first quarter of 2024, with annual growth across the 56 markets we cover reaching 3.6%. This marks a notable improvement from the 2.2% growth seen in Q2 last year when markets were absorbing the impact of the rapid worldwide rise in interest rates since early 2022.
Although prices are rising at an annual rate of 3.6%, this is still below the 20-year long-run trend rate of 5.6%. Quarterly growth, though more volatile, is running at 1.3%. This is an increase from the past two quarters but still marginally below the long-run average of 1.4%.
Looking across 56 markets, 82% are posting annual price growth in Q1--the strongest showing since Q4 2022. On a quarterly basis, 67% of markets are seeing prices rise--the strongest since Q3 2022.
With inflation still elevated in many global markets, real house price growth remains negative. When accounting for inflation, prices fell on average by 0.4% in the 12 months leading up to March this year. Real annual price growth is currently 3.3% below its long-run average of 2.9%.
COUNTRY FOCUS
Turkey leads Knight Frank's index once again, with significant domestic inflation impacting the housing market. After peaking at 86% in October 2022, CPI in Turkey fell to a low of 38% in June last year but has since surged again to 75%. While rising by over 50% in the year to March, in real terms, prices in Turkey have fallen by 9.9% over the past 12 months.
Bulgaria (16%), Poland (13%), Colombia (12%), Taiwan (10.5%), and Greece (10.4%) are the other markets seeing double-digit growth.
The Australian market, with 7.5% growth over the past 12 months, has seen a strong turnaround since last year when prices were under pressure from rising rates. However, prices fell by 1% in the last three-month period.
The U.S. saw strong growth at 6.5%, with prices ticking up by 1.9% over the past quarter, supported by low stock even as debt costs weigh on the market.
The UK's 1.6% growth in Q1 marks a continued slowing of growth, as high debt costs conspire to squeeze affordability.
European markets comprise eight of the 11 markets experiencing price falls, with France (-5.2%) and Germany (-3.9%) feeling the effects of slower economic growth and high recent inflation.
Hong Kong lags behind other key global markets, with a fall of 11.6% in prices over the past 12 months. A slower economy has led to a repricing of the market.
Liam Bailey, Knight Frank's global head of research says, "House prices have ticked up over the past year in the majority of global markets. Many markets are suffering from a lack of properties to sell as well as slow new-build delivery, leading to relatively healthy demand pushing prices to new highs. In the longer term, however, only lower debt costs will sustain price growth."
