Confidence Rising in Southern Nevada Housing Market

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Local Realtors continue to gain confidence in the Southern Nevada housing market, with more than nine out of 10 expecting local home prices to keep going up in the next year.

This was just one of the findings in the latest Quarterly Sentiment Index released this week by UNLV's Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies in partnership with the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR).

"While I'm not surprised, it's still interesting to see how the vast majority of our local Realtors continue to believe that our housing market is getting better and that it should continue to do so over the next quarter and into the next year," said GLVAR President David J. Tina.

Each quarter, Lied Institute researchers survey a select group of GLVAR members about their expectations for home prices, sales and home construction over the next quarter and next year.

Peter Counts, a data analyst at the Lied Institute who oversaw the survey, said these latest results show that the 38 GLVAR members who responded to the quarterly survey conducted last month were even more optimistic than they were during previous quarters. In fact, Counts said this current survey shows the highest level of overall confidence in the local housing market since the survey started in early 2016. These latest results showed an increase in both short-run and long-term optimism for the Las Vegas housing market. For example, Counts said the survey's 90-day index increased from 127 to 141.

"This 14-point increase was the largest increase in the short-run, 90-day index since the creation of the index back in the second quarter of 2016," Counts said. "Respondents remain more optimistic about the housing market over the next year than they do over the next 90 days. The long-run, one-year sentiment index increased from 145 to 160 for the third quarter of 2017. This 15-point increase was also the largest increase in the long-run annual sentiment index since the creation of the index."

Tina said his experience and that of GLVAR members he talks to generally supports these sentiments, as he's seeing increased activity in his own real estate business.

When asked where they thought local home prices were going in the next year, 97 percent of those who responded said they expected prices to go up. Only one person surveyed expected prices to stay about the same. None of the local Realtors who responded to the survey expected prices to go down over the course of the next year.

When asked where they thought local home prices were going over the next 90 days, 92 percent expected prices to rise, while none of the respondents expected prices to go down during the quarter.

Realtors were less bullish on short-term sales volume, with 50 percent believing sales volume would increase over the next quarter, 42 percent believing it would stay the same and 8 percent predicting it would decrease.

When asked about the overall assessment of the Las Vegas real estate market, only one person thought it would get worse over the next 90 days. The survey showed 89 percent believe that the overall housing market will improve over the next year, and only one person believes that it will get worse over the next year.

As for local home building, GLVAR members expected home building activity would improve more over the next 90 days than it would over the next year, with 68 percent expecting home building activity to increase over the next year, while 84 percent believe it will increase over the next 90 days. Only 8 percent indicated that they believe home building activity will decrease over the next year, while no Realtors expected a decrease over the next 90 days.

As for challenges facing the market, Realtors who answered the survey most commonly expressed concerns about the shrinking local housing supply.

Despite dealing with less than a two-month supply of available homes when a six-month supply is considered ideal, Tina pointed out that more existing local homes were sold in 2016 than during 2015 and that 2017 is on pace to be the best sales year since 2012.