Residential Real Estate News
Up to 700,000 Florida Homes at Risk of Storm Surge Damage from Hurricane Milton
Total reconstruction cost value for these homes could exceed $174 billion
According to new data from CoreLogic, an estimated 500,000 residential properties in the greater Tampa Bay and Sarasota metro areas are at risk of storm surge flooding due to Hurricane Milton. The total reconstruction cost value (RCV) for these homes is estimated at $123 billion. This projection assumes that Hurricane Milton will make landfall as a Category 3 storm, though there is still uncertainty about its exact strength at landfall.
The hurricane's size and intensity at landfall will significantly influence the number of properties at risk. If Milton weakens to a Category 1 hurricane, the number of homes threatened could drop to 225,000, with an estimated RCV of $55 billion. However, if the storm strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane, as many as 700,000 homes with a combined RCV of $174 billion could be at risk, reports CoreLogic.
Over the next 24 hours, Hurricane Milton is expected to fluctuate in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, temporarily weakening the storm but increasing its size. This growth in size will expose more coastline to potential storm surge flooding. In the last 12 hours before landfall, Milton will encounter hostile environmental factors, including dry air entrapment and increased vertical wind shear. How much these conditions will weaken the storm remains uncertain. Current forecasts predict Hurricane Milton will make landfall over Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.
CoreLogic says even small changes in Milton's landfall location could drastically alter the financial impact of the storm. A direct hit, or one just north of Tampa Bay, could cause the most severe damage, affecting a greater number of properties. A more southern landfall would reduce damage in Tampa Bay but severely impact coastal communities near Sarasota.
These RCV estimates above do not account for commercial properties at risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Milton in the greater Tampa Bay and Sarasota metropolitan areas, which according to some experts, could represent an additional $50 billion in reconstruction cost values.
