Commercial, Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates a Mixed Bag in Q-3

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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report, the delinquency rate for different commercial/multifamily mortgage investor groups were mixed in the third quarter. The delinquency rate for loans held in CMBS is the highest since the series began in 1997. Delinquency rates for other groups remain below levels seen in the early 1990's, some by large margins.

"Greater strength in the economy is bringing some stability to commercial mortgage delinquency rates," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.  "Commercial mortgage performance among most investor groups, including life insurance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and commercial banks and thrifts, continues to be better than during the last major downturn of the early-1990s. Although weak, the economic recovery is just beginning to be seen in commercial real estate fundamentals and the mortgages they support."

Between the second quarter and third quarter of 2010, the 90+ day delinquency rate on loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts increased 0.15 percentage points to 4.41 percent. The 30+ day delinquency rate on loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) rose 0.36 percentage points to 8.58 percent.  The 60+ day delinquency rate on loans held in life company portfolios decreased 0.07 percentage points to 0.22 percent.  The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae decreased 0.15 percentage points to 0.65 percent.  The 60+ day delinquency rate on multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac increased 0.07 percentage points to 0.35 percent.

The third quarter 2010 delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held by banks and thrifts was 2.17 percentage points lower than the series high (of 6.58 percent reached in the second quarter of 1991). The rate for loans held in CMBS was a record high for the series.  Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life insurance company portfolios was 7.15 percentage points lower than the series high (of 7.37 percent reached during the third quarter of 1993);  the rate for multifamily loans held by Fannie Mae rate was 2.97 percentage points below the series high of 3.62 percent (reached during the fourth quarter of 1991); and the rate for multifamily loans held by Freddie Mac was 6.46 percentage points lower than the series high (of 6.81 percent reached in 1992).

Construction and development loans are not included in the numbers presented here, but are included in many regulatory definitions of 'commercial real estate' despite the fact that they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers or other income-producing properties.

The MBA analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Together these groups hold more than 80 percent of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding.

The analysis incorporates the same measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans.  Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another.

Based on the unpaid principal balance of loans (UPB), delinquency rates for each group at the end of the third quarter were as follows:

• Banks and thrifts:  4.41 percent (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual).

• CMBS:  8.58 percent (30+ days delinquent or in REO).

• Life company portfolios: 0.22 percent (60+days delinquent).

• Fannie Mae:  0.65 percent (60 or more days delinquent).

• Freddie Mac:  0.35 percent (60 or more days delinquent).

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