Prudential Douglas Elliman Queens Market Overview Q2 2009

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Number of sales and price indicators fell

Price indicators declined

(NEW YORK, NY) -- The average sales price of a Queens property that closed during the quarter was $396,756, down 11.5% from the $448,397 average sales price during the same period last year. Following the same pattern, median sales price for the second quarter was $362,000, down 13.8% from the $420,000 median sales price during the same period last year. When breaking out the re-sale market from the new development market, the trend varies significantly. Re sale properties reflected a 15.3% decline in median sales price to $350,000, from $413,400 during the same period in the prior year. In contrast, the median sales price for new development sales increased 19.4% to $507,447 from $424,866 in the prior year quarter. Since resale properties accounted for 95.3% of all sales in Queens in the quarter, the 4.7% market share of new development sales did not provide much upward skew to the overall price indicators. The average square footage of a new development was 945 square feet, compared to 1,747 square feet for re-sale properties.

Sales down year over year, but up from prior quarter

There were 2,129 sales in the quarter, 45.1% below the 3,876 sales from the prior year quarter, but up 18.2% from 1,801 sales in the prior quarter. The increase in the number of sales was higher than a seasonal increase, reflecting a release of pent-up demand from the limited activity in late 2008 and early 2009. Listing inventory fell 14.3% to 10,100 units from 11,783 units in the prior year quarter. The decline in inventory is indicative of many sellers who do not have urgency to sell and have opted to list their properties when the market improves. The monthly absorption rate reached a record 17.4 months in the first quarter, but has fallen to 14.2 months in the second quarter, 5.1 months longer than the 9.1 month absorption rate during the same period last year. The decline in inventory in the second quarter coupled with the larger decline in the number of sales caused the absorption rate to fall. The monthly absorption rate averaged 6.8 months over the past 5 years.

Listing discount and days on market expanded

The distance in price the seller and buyer had to travel to come to an agreement on price expanded over the past year, but seasonality influenced a tighter discount in the second quarter. The listing discount was 7.7% in the second quarter up from 4.2% in the prior year quarter, but down from the 8.4% listing discount of the prior quarter. Days on market was 107 days, 11 days longer than the 96 days on market averaged in the prior year quarter and unchanged from the prior quarter.

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Condo Market
Price indicators saw modest decline

Number of sales declined as price indicators slipped

There were 201 condo sales in the second quarter, 46.5% below the 376 sales of the prior year quarter, but 6.9% higher than the 188 sales in the prior quarter. Median sales price slipped 0.6% to $386,437 from $388,674 in the same period last year. Average sales price posted the same pattern slipping 0.5% to $439,716 from $441,787 in the prior year quarter. Price per square foot slipped 2.7% over the same period to $468 from $480 in the same period last year. New development sales accounted for 49.3% of all condo sales. New development closings tend to reflect prior market conditions that lag the current market by 12-18 months, which were better than the current conditions.

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Co-Op Market
Number of sales declined as price indicators slipped

Price indicators posted modest declines

There were 615 sales in the second quarter, 46.1% below the prior year quarter total of 1,140 sales, but jumped 29.2% from 476 sales in the prior quarter. The median sales price of a Brooklyn co-op was $203,809, 2% below the $208,000 median sales price during the same period last year. Average sales price followed the same pattern with a 3.5% decline to $219,332 from $227,229 in the prior year quarter. Median sales price by quintile showed single digit year over year declines with the exception of the top quintile, increasing 3.2% to $345,000.

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1-3 Family Market
Number of sales and price indictors declined

Price indicators showed similar declines

The median sales price of a Brooklyn 1-3 family property was $445,000, down 16% from $529,745 in the prior year quarter. Price per square foot declined 11.7% to $262 per square foot from $297 per square foot last year at this time. Average sales price declined 14.9% to $473,284 from $556,285 in the second quarter of 2008. There were 1,313 sales in the second quarter, down 44.4% from 2,360 in the prior quarter, but up 15.5% from 1,137 sales in the prior quarter. The average size of a 1-3 family property sale in the second quarter was 1,806 square feet.

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Luxury Market
Price indicators below prior year levels

Both price indicators declined

The median sales price fell 9.1% to $800,000 in the second quarter from $880,000 in the same period a year ago and 1% below the $814,600 of the prior quarter. For five consecutive quarters, the year over year change in quarterly median sales price has posted declines. The decline in median sales price has occurred in all five quintiles in the second quarter. Average sales price reflected the same pattern, declining 9.8% to $860,201 from $953,300 in the prior year quarter and 1.8% below the prior quarter average sales price of $869,027.

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Central Market
Price indicators mixed

Number of sales below prior year levels

There were 402 sales in the quarter, 49.6% below the same period last year with 798 sales. The median sales price was $329,950, up 7.1% from $308,000 in the prior year quarter; while average sales price declined 2.9% to $370,209 from $381,219 over the same period. Market share slipped to 18.9% of all sales in the borough from 20.6% in the same period last year.

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South Market
Number of sales posted decline

Price indicators declined

Number of sales declined 34.4% to 554 units, from 845 units in the same period last year. The median sales price was $360,000, down 20.9% from the $455,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter. Average sales price declined 15.4% to $358,085 in the second quarter from $423,292 in the prior year quarter.

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West Market
Number of sales declined

Both price indicators posted declines

The number of sales declined 51.2% to 340 units from 697 units in the same period last year, but increased 14.9% from 296 units in the prior quarter. Median sales price was $388,500, down 31.2% from $565,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price dropped 15% to $393,200 this quarter from $462,829 in the same period last year.

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Northeast Market
Price indicators and number of sales declined

Number of sales, price indicators fell

Median sales price was $357,770, a 29.8% drop from the $510,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter. Average sales price declined 14% to $424,658 from $493,607 in the prior year quarter. There were 541 sales in the second quarter, down 43.7% from 961 sales in the same period last year.

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Northwest Market
Number of sales and overall price indicators declined

Number of sales less than half the prior year quarter

There were 162 sales in the second quarter, 51.2% below the prior year quarter total of 332 sales, but unchanged from the prior quarter total of 162 sales. In the second quarter, new development market share was 37% of all regional sales, but less than the 46.9% market share of the prior quarter. Despite the drop, market share is still considered elevated compared to levels of the past several years. This is due to a drop in re-sale activity resulting in a gain in market share for new development rather than an increase in new development activity.

Price indicators in four of five quintiles rose

The overall median sales price was $481,325 in the second quarter, 10.9% below the $540,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter. Despite the overall decline in median sales price, four of the five quintiles posted increases over the prior year quarter. The exception was the top quintile, which fell 12.3% to $789,072 from $900,000 in the same period last year. The overall average sales price fell 14.7% over the same period to $479,541 from $561,959.


 

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Rockaway Market
Price indicators showed gains

Number of sales below prior year levels

The median sales price was $390,322 in the second quarter, up 4.1% from $375,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price posted larger increases over the same period, up 13.8% to $433,664 from $380,962 in the same period last year. There were 130 sales, a 46.5% decline from 243 sales in the same period last year.

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