Hurricane Irene Poised to Cause $2.8 Billion in Property Damage and Losses Along Northeast Corridor This Week

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Based on this morning's estimates of hurricane Irene's most recent track from the National Hurricane Center, some experts are now projecting $2.8 Billion or more in total property damage and losses from Irene. Insured losses would be approximately half of that total. But other models show much higher losses.

Some of the estimates based on computer model tracks, such as the current WRF model, show losses over $5 Billion with storm hitting Long Island as a Category 1 hurricane.

Other reliable forecast models show losses under $1 Billion, with the eye of the storm remaining offshore from North Carolina and just brushing Cape Cod.

The  Hurricane Center has a tendency to be somewhat conservative (on the high side) with wind speeds, as well as keep their tracks closer to the US coast than the meteorology would indicate so as to encourage people to take precautions.

The biggest problem is that longer range forecasts (over 72 hours) have a lot of uncertainty, and it is very difficult to predict losses until about 24 hours before landfall because even small wobbles can make a big difference in losses.

For example, had Hurricane Andrew made landfall 15 miles further north in Miami, losses would have been doubled!  In the case of Irene, the big loss question is whether or not the storm hits the very densely populated New York/Long Island area as a hurricane, and it is way too early to tell that.

Charles Watson Jr. of Savannah, Georgia-based Kinetic Analysis said, "As of Wednesday morning, the storm looks to hit the Outer Banks and later impact New England.  If it follows the official forecast losses should be about $3 Billion Dollars, and could be as high as $6 Billion.  If the storm bypasses offshore, which is very possible at this point, losses will be far less."

The Atlantic basin was expected to see an active, above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center - a division of the National Weather Service.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which began June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has 70 percent likelihood, and indicates that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

According to CoreLogic's 2011 U.S. Storm Surge Damage Report released last month, the potential residential property exposure to storm surge damage in ten major urban areas along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coast could be over $300 billion in potential property damage exposure in these ten cities alone.

"The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "However we can't count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:

• The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.

• La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

"In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA's National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

"The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we've seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it's important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

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