Hurricane Irene Threatens Over 1,874,000 Atlantic Coast Properties for Potential Storm Surge Flooding

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Based on CoreLogic's property data for the 12 major coastal metro areas included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) hurricane Irene cone of concern, an estimated 1,874,794 properties are at potential risk of storm surge flooding.

Long Island and New York City faces the highest risk with an estimated 387,813 properties located in the projected path of Irene.  Of the properties at risk in Long Island, roughly 66 percent are located outside a hazard flood zone as designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Of the total properties at risk in all 12 cities, almost half, or 48 percent, are not in a designated FEMA flood zone. The CoreLogic analysis assumes a scenario for a Category 3 hurricane.

Hurricane-driven storm-surge flooding can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure causes water to amass inside the storm releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves on shore. In some cases, properties located outside of designated FEMA hazard flood zones remain exposed to potential storm-surge damage.

The biggest issues with respect to U.S. property damage is how sharp the initial northward turn is, how much (if any) the storm is weakened after hitting North Carolina, and the exact track across the Northeast.

The exact track is critical, as a westward track hit more valuable assets, but results in a weaker storm due to travels overland. Further offshore means less decrease in intensity, but potentially less impact on the Washington/Philadelphia corridor and the very dense New York City/Long Island/Connecticut area.

Worst case would be for the storm to strike North Carolina with minimal loss in intensity, stay over water off shore from Maryland and New Jersey then hit the New York City area. 

Charles Watson Jr. of Kinetic Analysis said, "If hurricane Irene continues on a track that threatens the Atlantic coast, storm total losses would be on the order of $11.8 Billion, with alternative track estimates ranging from $2.8 Billion to $15 Billion. We feel that the likely U.S. damages will be between $5 and $10 Billion range."

See related WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL news stories:

• Hurricane Irene Poised to Cause $2.8 Billion in Property Damage and Losses Along Northeast Corridor This Week

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