Prudential Douglas Elliman Releases Long Island Market Overview for Q2

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Listing inventory contracted despite decline in number of sales

Both inventory and number of sales declined

(LONG ISLAND, NY) -- The number of sales fell 32.7% to 3,956 from 5,874 in the same period last year, but increased 37.7% from the prior quarter total of 2,872. The jump in number of sales was consistent with seasonal trends as this period has averaged a 35.4% increase in the prior 5 years. Seasonality in this market statistic is much more pronounced than in New York City, where the trend has been historically more moderate. The number of properties for sale peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 26,145 properties. Listing inventory has fallen 10.2% from the peak to 23,485 properties, in contrast to the decline in the number of sales over the same period. The monthly absorption rate -- the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales -- was 17.8 months, up from 13.4 months in the same period last year. Many sellers are opting to list properties when they determine the market has improved.

Price indicators continued to decline

The median sales price of a Long Island property declined 18.2% to $360,000 from $439,841 in the same period a year ago. This is the fourth consecutive year over year decline of the quarterly price metric, which has been expanding since the second quarter 2008 when the rate was 0%. Average sales price followed the same pattern with an 18.4% decline over the same period to $423,344 from $518,555 in the prior year quarter.

Days on market and listing discount reflected seller "chase"

Days on market for the quarter was 126, 9 days longer than the 117 days on market average from the prior year quarter. Listing discount jumped to 7.4% from 4.9% in the same period last year reflecting the wider gap between buyer and seller during negotiation and indicating that sellers are "chasing" or "falling behind the market" when pricing their properties.

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Nassau Market - Price indicators and number of sales declined

Spring uptick in number of sales consistent with seasonal trends

Listing inventory slipped 6.7% to 10,296 properties from 11,036 properties in the prior year quarter. There was a 4.6% increase in listing inventory from 9,843 properties in the prior quarter, but the change was consistent with seasonal trends. There were 2,017 properties that sold during the quarter, 29.8% below the 2,875 sales in the prior year quarter. Because of the decline in the number of sales, the monthly rate of absorption slowed to 15.3 months from 11.5 at the same time last year. Nassau County accounted for 51% of all of Long Island sales during the quarter.

Price indicators continued to decline as listing discount rose

Median sales price in the second quarter was $395,000, down 18.6% from $485,000 in the prior year quarter, but was essentially unchanged from the $396,063 median sales price of the prior quarter. Average sales price followed a nearly identical pattern suggesting no significant skew caused by outliers. The average sales price was $485,236 in the second quarter, down 18.4% from $595,015 in the prior year quarter. Listing discount expanded to 8.4% from 5.8% during the same period a year ago.

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Suffolk Market - Price indicators declined as inventory contracted

Price indicators declined, days on market expanded

Median sales price in the second quarter was $320,000, down 19.3% from $396,550 in the prior year quarter and up 1.6% from the $315,000 median sales price of the prior quarter. The average sales price was $358,961 in the second quarter, down 19.4% from $445,256 in the prior year quarter. Listing discount expanded to 6.4% from 4.1% during the same period a year ago as sellers continue to fall behind the market when pricing their properties. Days on market also expanded over the same period to 135 days from 118 days in the prior year quarter, despite the decline in the number of listings available for sale.

Number of sales fell as inventory continued to decline

Listing inventory declined 12.7% to 13,189 properties from 15,109 properties in the prior year quarter. There were 1,939 properties that sold during the quarter, 35.3% below the 2,999 sales in the prior year quarter. As a result, the monthly rate of absorption declined to 20.4 months from 15.1 months at the same time last year. Suffolk County accounted for 49% of all of Long Island sales during the quarter.

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Nassau North Shore Market - Modest decline in price indicators, sharp decline in number of sales

Listing discount and days on market expanded

Throughout the past year, listing discount has been expanding, reaching 12.1% in the current quarter, up from 7.8% in the prior year quarter, but stable compared to the 12.3% listing discount of the prior quarter. Days on market expanded slightly to 130 days from 128 days in the prior year quarter.

Price indicators slipped as number of sales down sharply

Median sales price fell 6.4% to $683,000 from $730,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price was $914,185 in the second quarter, down 3.7% from $949,672 in the same period last year. The modest decline in price indicators was in contrast to the 53.4% drop in the number of sales in the second quarter to 283 from 607 sales in the prior year quarter. However, there was a 31% increase in the number of sales from the first quarter total of 216.

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Nassau Middle Island - Price indicators declined as listing discount expanded

Days on market up slightly as listing discount jumped

The average property was on the market for 113 days, 3 days longer than the 110 days on market average during the same period last year. Listing discount was up sharply to 7% from 4.6% in the prior year quarter. The expansion of these indicators is consistent with the decline in price indicators and number of sales.

Price indicators and number of sales showed decline

The median sales price fell 17.3% to $379,000 from $458,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price showed the same pattern, declining 18.4% to $409,519 in the current quarter from $502,104. The decline in price indicators was consistent with the decline in number of sales, off 24.8% to 1,460 sales from 1,941 sales in the prior year quarter. The 45.3% increase from the 1,005 sales in the prior quarter was consistent with seasonal trends.

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Nassau and Suffolk South Shore - Price indicators declined as listing discount expanded

Number of sales declined

The number of sales fell 43.6% to 648 in the second quarter from 1,149 sales in the same period last year, yet sales jumped 26.3% from the prior quarter as a seasonal uptick. Days on market expanded 13 days to 134 days from 121 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount increased to 7.3% from 5.2% in the prior year quarter. The decline in sales activity and expansion of market time is consistent with the decline in the price indicators.

Price indicators below prior year, similar to prior quarter

The median sales price was $310,000, down 22.5% from $400,000 in the prior year quarter and unchanged from the prior quarter. Average sales price followed the same pattern with a 21.7% decline to $353,121 in the second quarter from $451,065 in the prior year quarter and up a modest 1.7% from $347,119 in the prior quarter.

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Condo Market - Price indicators declined as days on market expanded

Listing discount and days on market rose

Days on market increased 18 days to 138 days in the second quarter from 120 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount followed the same trend over the period, reaching 6.4% from 4.7% over the same period last year.

Number of sales declined as price indicators fell

Market share remained consistent over the past year at 13.5% from 13.8% in the prior year quarter, despite the 34.2% decline in the number of sales over the sale period. Median sales price also posted a decline, falling 12% to $264,000 from $299,999 in the prior year quarter.

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1-3 Family Market - Listing discount expanded as number of sales declined

Price indicators showed consistent declines

The median sales price was $374,000, down 17.8% from $455,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price showed the same pattern with a 20.8% decline to $440,499 from $556,280 in the same period last year. Median sales price by market quintiles showed double digit declines in all market segments.

Number of sales declined as days in market posted modest gain

Days on market averaged 125 days in the second quarter, 1 week longer than 118 days during the same period last year. Listing discount reached 7.7% from 5.3% in the prior year quarter. The monthly absorption rate was 17.5 months compared to 19.7 months for condos.

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Luxury Market - Price indicators declined as days on market stabilized

Listing discount jumped yet days on market stabilized

The days on market declined 6 days to 134 days from 140 days in the prior year quarter, the only submarket not to see an increase in this metric. Listing discount expanded to 11.3% from 8.3% in the prior year quarter.

Price indicators declined consistent with overall market

Median sales price was $875,000, down 22.4% from $1,127,000 and the third consecutive quarter this indicator was below the $1,000,000 threshold. Average sales price fell 16.7% to $1,116,374 from $1,339,579 in the same period last year.

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